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☆ From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession, here's a roundup of recent high-profile bear forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.

Persons: —, they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, — Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ Premarket stocks: Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is flashing red
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The “Buffett Indicator” is flashing red. If the stock market is growing a lot faster than the economy, that could be a sign of a bubble. Yes, but: The so-called Buffett Indicator is not without flaw. By the closing bell, Trump Media ended at $57.99, up by a more modest 16% on the day. He said Trump Media is likely worth somewhere around $2 a share — nowhere near its closing stock price of $58.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Fortune Magazine “, Berkshire Hathaway, John Hussman, Hussman, Larry Summers, “, ”, Louis Navellier, Goldman Sachs, Navellier, doesn’t, Buffett, they’re, Jamie Dimon, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Elisabeth Buchwald, Donald Trump’s, CNN’s Matt Egan, Jay Ritter, Ritter Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fortune Magazine, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Navellier, Associates, “, JPMorgan, CNBC, CNN, Visa, Mastercard, Court, Eastern, of, National Retail Federation, Trading, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, GameStop, AMC Locations: New York, of New York

☆ Elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach compares the AI boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble — and warns of economic pain
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble. DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump. Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach has warned the AI-crazed stock market reminds him of the dot-com bubble — and predicted a painful mix of stubborn inflation and economic decline lies ahead.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Gross, John Hussman, — Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Business

☆ A notorious stock-market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 declines warns that conditions are 'consistent with the risk of an abrupt air-pocket, panic, or crash' — and the S&P will fall 50%-70%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami

☆ Warren Buffett's favorite market gauge hit a 2-year high, signaling stocks are heavily overvalued and could crash
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWarren Buffett's favorite market gauge has surged to a two-year high of 184%, signaling stocks are overvalued and could suffer a devastating crash. Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy. It also relies on GDP, which excludes overseas income, whereas US stocks price in the value of companies' domestic and international operations. AdvertisementYet the metric's return to the lofty levels that preceded past market disasters is a clear red flag for some experts.

Persons: —, Warren, Buffett, yardstick, Buffett's yardstick, John Hussman, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business, Wilshire Indexes, Wilshire, Nvidia, Microsoft, Federal, Nasdaq, Hussman Investment Trust Locations: Wilshire, Berkshire

☆ S&P 500 might crash 60%, a recession is looming, and speculation is rife, warns elite technical analyst Milton Berg
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Market bears calling for a 60% crash in the S&P 500 could soon be proven correct, Milton Berg said. The technical analyst said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. Berg warned a recession appears likely based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. AdvertisementStocks might crash up to 60%, a recession seems likely, and market speculation has reached dangerous levels, a veteran technical analyst warned. AdvertisementBerg, a former advisor to elite investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, now runs Milton Berg Advisors.

Persons: Milton Berg, Berg, —, they've, John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, who's, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller Organizations: Service, Milton Berg Advisors, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Netflix Locations: Milton

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns current market conditions are worse than in 99.9% of history — typically meaning stocks are ripe for a 10%-30% sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock valuations are near their most elevated levels ever — and lays out why a 63% decline in the S&P 500 would be consistent with 10
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it shows the S&P 500 at levels higher than during the dot-com bubble. According to Hussman's model, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasurys by about 7.5% over the next 12 years, the lowest projection since the 2000 and 1929 bubbles. Actual S&P 500 performance tends to follow Hussman's projections closely. Here's the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which averages valuations over the prior 10 years. Much of those gains are thanks to the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks, the S&P 500's biggest seven stocks by market cap.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial Locations: it's

☆ 'Buckle up': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stocks remain near their highest valuation levels in history — and that the market is ripe for steep and abrupt losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

High valuations, despite their little influence on short-term returns, often mean devastating outcomes for investors over a longer period. There's also what he calls "poor market internals," which he tracks through a proprietary measure that monitors the breadth of individual stock performance. Hussman FundsThe combination of poor internals and high valuations are why Hussman says losses could come out of nowhere, and quickly. "Historically, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market action has created a 'trap door' situation for the market," Hussman said. Rather, the steepest market losses have generally emerged from that combination of market conditions, and these losses tend to emerge abruptly, without additional warning."

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Irving Fisher catastrophically, Here's, There's, they've, Buckle, Hussman bullish Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust

☆ Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says the S&P 500 won't hit a new high for years – and house prices will probably fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The billionaire investor said he didn't expect the S&P 500 to hit a fresh high for a long time. Cooperman said a "rolling correction" was underway and house prices were likely to drop. AdvertisementAdvertisementLeon Cooperman said stocks were overpriced, and the S&P 500 wouldn't notch a fresh high for a very long time. AdvertisementAdvertisementA handful of Big Tech names, including Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft, have pulled the major indexes higher this year, but excluding the so-called Magnificent Seven, stocks are virtually flat. He said in February that the S&P 500 was likely to bottom around 3,100 points, or 35% below its January 2022 peak.

Persons: Leon Cooperman, Cooperman, —, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Goldman Sachs, Tesla Organizations: Service, Omega Advisors, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Finance, Philanthropy Locations: Bronx

☆ The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%, markets guru John Hussman warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a historic bubble and could crash by over 60%, John Hussman says. The markets guru says the S&P 500 looks very expensive and is priced to yield negative returns. He cautioned that virtually every market cycle in history has ended with projected S&P 500 total returns returning to historical norms. Hussman noted the S&P 500 is priced today for a negative return over the next 10 to 12 years. The markets guru said stocks won't necessarily crash, but "when the bough breaks, my sense is that it may break abruptly."

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, —, Buckle, GMO's Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Investment, Federal

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

☆ 'Far deeper market losses will emerge': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's losses are only just beginning as stock valuations remain near their 1929 and 2
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks are due for substantial losses amid high valuations. Here's Hussman's favorite measure of valuation: total market cap of non-financial-sector stocks-to-total revenues of those stocks. Hussman FundsAnother valuation measure Hussman likes is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Hussman Funds"Current market conditions create what we continue to view as a 'trap door' situation for the equity market. Another reason Hussman's outlook is so dire is that stock valuations remain high relative to where risk-free Treasury yields are.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Hussman, Fed, Treasury, America, Bank of America, Reserve

☆ Wall Street keeps booming, but not everyone's convinced the bull market will last. Here's 6 voices of doom and gloom on US equities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg. From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there's a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally. That's given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally. Here's 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market's breathless climb. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.

Persons: Warren Buffett, David Rosenberg, it's, there's, Dow Jones, Oppenheimer, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Rosenberg, Tom Lee, Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor, John Hussman, Hussman, Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, DiMartino Booth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Buffett, Rosenberg Research, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks face the same 3 negative conditions they did in November 2021— and warns the 25% drop that followed will prove to be a 'small o
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman warns that valuations, investor sentiment, and market technicals are poor right now. A recipe for stock market disasterOn valuations, Hussman likes to compare total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. His criteria for technical overextension include an S&P 500 14-day relative strength index above 70, at least a 4% rate-of-change for the S&P 500 in the last 14-day period, and the S&P 500 at least 4.5% above its 50-day average. The chart below shows advances and declines for the S&P 500 in the 40 trading sessions after these criteria have been met. Piper SandlerOutside of technicals, however, macroeconomic fundamentals will likely be a main driver of market returns in the months ahead.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, John Hussman —, —, there's, he's, they've, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Organizations: Street, Reserve Locations: technicals

☆ The extreme bubble in stocks 'will end in tears' with the S&P 500 plunging 64%, a long-time bear who called the 2000, 2008 crashes has warned. Here are his 6 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

John Hussman, an asset-bubble expert, forecasts the ongoing rally in US stocks will "end in tears." The S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse given extreme valuations and "unfavourable market internals," he said. "There is a particular 'setup" that we've historically found to be associated with abrupt 'air pockets' and 'free falls' in the S&P 500. It combines hostile conditions in all three features most central to our investment disciple: rich valuations, unfavourable market internals, and extreme overextension." "At present, the valuation extremes we observe imply that a -64% loss in the S&P 500 would be required to restore run-of-the-mill long term prospective returns.

Persons: John Hussman, I've Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon, macrotrends.net

☆ The stock market's gains are almost entirely concentrated in the 'Magnificent 7' - and that could mean a crash is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Have you heard of the Magnificent Seven? This handful of Big Tech stocks have accounted for nearly all the market's gains in 2023. The names that make up the so-called Magnificent Seven are now the seven biggest US-listed stocks. Are you buying or selling the Magnificent Seven? Strategists from Goldman Sachs made the case for names they think will be low in volatility and high in returns.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, It's, you'll, let's, Tesla, there's, Minerva, Kathleen Brooks, John Hussman, Hussman, ANGELA WEISS, Goldman Sachs, Russell, Xi Jinping, Everyone's, Cleo Capital's Sarah Kunst, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Twitter, LinkedIn, Lionsgate, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, Big Tech, Apple, Hussman Investment Trust, Getty, PLC, Costco Locations: New York, London

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

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